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Climate Change and Natural Disasters. Fact or Fiction?

So! Let me tell you why we know exactly why the world is flat! Okay okay… it’s not quite as hot a topic and as debated and contentious as that, but, as of the last five years or so it has kicked up a decent bit of a stir. The topic is the link between volcanoes and climate. But maybe not in the way you would think. We know that volcanic eruptions cause global cooling by shooting particles into the air but what if there was a likelihood that global warming and climate change increase volcanic activity?


Volcanoes

The first question is: How possibly does climate change and global warming affect volcanic activity? The answer is relatively simple, fewer ice sheets means less pressure on the crust leading to more active movements and, hence more volcanic activity. The main movement occurs in the upper mantle and the crust, this increased movement means more magma production leading to more eruptions.

One of the first ideas that came to be with this conclusion was the increase of volcanic in Iceland at two volcanoes, Grímsvötn and Katla, increase with activity in summer due to glacial retreat. One could assume that a global decrease in glaciers could lead to increased volcanism in other regions and possibly exacerbate current volcanic conditions.




Earthquakes

Similar ideas can also be seen with earthquakes and plate activity. Decreased pressure on plates leading to more movements means more earthquakes. Seismic activity and surface conditions can also be linked. Prolonged drought has actually been seen to decrease pressure on the earth's surface leading to rock movement. This was noticed in the Sierra Nevada in North America which shows that climate change inducing prolonged droughts could possibly lead to more active seismic activity resulting in both more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.


Rocks losing water weight leads to movement. This might result in seismic activity or not, that is still under question. However, the main point of concern is not only melting ice caps causing sea level rise and possible volcanic and seismic activity but also more cyclical losses in rock water mass might also lead to natural disasters. These also might be such as rock falls or other small-scale movements but nonetheless, they can be seen as a result of climate change or variability.


The Problem(?)

These shifts in volcanic activity have been studied over a long period of time looking at records dating back tens of thousands of years in the geological record. The question then becomes can these problems be attributed to modern-day climate change and anthroprogenic induced global warming or not? This is still under question and under debate.


Scientists have a good understanding that relatively small shifts in climate variability might result in changes in activity, however, whether these shifts are human-induced is under question. The conclusion might be there in terms of the final product and the reasons why it happens but in the case of modern science: correlation is not causation and this is still something in its infancy of research.


Giving this research another couple of years or even a decade to come to more definitive answers will be best to keep an eye at for but as of now the relationship is there but whether it's a direct one is still to be explored.

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